A Reflection on Finitude in a World of Unpredictable Fragility

Juš, a friend from the bouquet of intellectually inspiring minds who have crossed my path recently, lent me Nassim Taleb’s bestseller The Black Swan. This eclectic patchwork, which upon its release stirred the public with an analysis of the effects of low-probability yet fatefully transformative events, has become essential reading for curious generalists. Today, we live in a world where the human capacity to articulate decisions and translate them into action is increasingly delegated to expansive language models, algorithmic predictions, and statistical operations, while reality—be it economic, social, or political—grows ever more brutally uncertain. The intellectual yearning to enter a field that seeks to explain the coordinates of the current Dasein (literally: being-there which refers to Heidegger’s concept of human existence as openness to Being) and its uncertainties was irresistible—above all in the hope of understanding the unpredictable, but even more so in the longing to glimpse the outlines of an alternative.

A Repetition of Definition or the False Discovery of the Already Known

In his analysis, Taleb focuses on that which Western society, in its very core, most persistently pushes to the periphery of collective consciousness: the fragility of meaning, the transparency of the universal, the unpredictability of the future, and the destructive force of what is repressed. The unifying signal and signifier of the spectrum of ideological-epistemological-ontological pathologies of the contemporary age is the Black Swan. Although Taleb emerges from a socio-economic forecasting context—and indeed exhibits a latent contempt for philosophy — the destructive and unforeseen events he addresses and analyzes fall within the structural conception of “event” as previously defined by Alain Badiou. They represent a rupture that exposes the inconsistency of meaning, the deterministically arbitrary stitching of any given ontological-epistemological framework. The moment as defined by Taleb — that is, the event which, even before its appearance, seems impossible or phantasmagorical, but then shatters the structure of the real and establishes a new ontological patchwork or meaning-laden field of retrospectively self-constituting subjectivity — is ultimately a category belonging to Badiou’s Events. Before 9/11, before the financial crash of 2008, before the rise of Harry Potter, before the emergence of the internet, there were the French Revolution, the student uprisings of 1968, Beethoven’s music, and—most profoundly—an infinite number of loves between two people.

Resistance to Philosophy as Evidence of Philosophical Fragility

Taleb rejects predictable systematization, dogmatism, the transparency of abstract thought, and other, in his view, Platonic delusions. His aversion to philosophical structuring is reflected in an anecdotally eclectic writing style that resembles less a theoretical framework than a kaleidoscope of fragmented insights from a widely read freethinker. But a superficial treatment of phenomena can only ever remain on the surface. An approach that analyzes surface phenomena reveals only the superficial traits of those same phenomena. The critique of Platonism that Taleb implies in his account of our blindness to Black Swan events is, in fact, an integral part of the historical development of philosophy itself. No one denies the importance of repeatedly pointing out that even philosophical systems can become dogmatic—serving as a crutch for the intellectually lazy. But the lifelessness, rigidity, and abstract lucidity of Platonism had already been exposed by Nietzsche long before Taleb. For Nietzsche too, truth is something that emerges—or becomes validated—within the context of life’s affirmation.

Events that, in an instant, dissolve the structure of ontological solidity in our everyday being-in-the-world are themselves part of the dynamic nature of truth. Certainly, we can identify such events in the stock market crash, the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the rise of the internet, or the climate crisis—yet these are merely the contemporary expressions of a deeper rupture. Nietzsche was far from the only one to find the notion of a static, eternal truth repugnant—indeed, we continue to cling to such illusions with undiminished intensity even today.

The conflation of the idealism of abstract thought with philosophy itself—something Taleb hints at—was already dismantled by Hegel in his essay Who Thinks Abstractly?. In this respect too, the realization that abstract thinking is not the mark of philosophers but rather of market vendors or Taleb’s “five-minute managers,” is merely a repetition—far from trivial, but nonetheless well-known—of a deeper philosophical refrain.

The omission of reference in the hope of securing originality is a matter of intellectual hygiene; identifying the surface without attempting to understand its depth is an epistemological failure. Consider, for instance, Taleb’s example of the financial analyst who retrospectively explains a market collapse that he had never foreseen. There is no doubt that Taleb is correct in pointing out the intellectual fallacy of post hoc explanation. But what he calls the “narrative fallacy” may appear to serve an epistemic purpose, while in truth it fulfills a different role—one described by Jean Cazaneuve in his Sociology of Ritual.

Though the analyst may appear to be sincerely searching for reasons behind an event that shattered the assumptions he held, what he is really seeking is a rationalization to restore a sense of coherence, meaning, and world-order with which he identifies. In short: it is not the truth that is being sought, but a way to flee from the incomprehensible, the chaotic, and the diffusely unmanageable world.

The entire genesis of ritual in the life of homo sapiens is a response to such existential disorientation. If we listen, even briefly, to Cassirer, Beavois, and Cazaneuve, it becomes clear that explanations do not serve to uncover the truth of the world, but rather to stitch it together—to render it graspable, familiar, coherent, and predictable. Dogmatism is the creation of intellectually and existentially homely landscapes. And of course, it also serves as a crutch for the lazy minds of rapidly proliferating instant specialists.

Inspiring Diagnosis Without a Cure
If we cannot credit Taleb with philosophical originality or depth, we must nonetheless acknowledge the vividness of his anecdotal style. The example of the well-fed turkey, who—lulled by the comforts of its conditioned routine—erroneously infers the permanence and unquestionable nature of its bliss, only to be surprised by Thanksgiving Day (what a telling name for a moment of brutal realization), strikes at the heart of modern superficial consumer consciousness. A consciousness that, basking in excess, ignores the problematic conditions that make such excess possible—without which it can no longer conceive of its own existence.

The brutal wastefulness that generates a devastating debt for future generations has, in the West, become the norm for political stability. We preserve ourselves by ensuring our long-term destruction. Like the chronic alcoholic who can function only by remaining dependent on the very substance that is destroying him, Western consumer society is one that devours itself. In such a pathological constellation, the Black Swan becomes a necessary consequence—even if it does not always appear.

If we align the turkey metaphor with Hegel’s allegory of master and slave, we might say that the turkey is no longer the master of its fate. It trusts the hand that feeds it, primarily because it refuses to recognize that this very hand has the power to destroy it. The anecdote about the all-knowing uncle is a brilliant analogy for the illusion of knowledge—brandished today by public officials, coaches, CEOs, and all those seeking quick profit with minimal or, ideally, zero investment. Naturally, the internet—which in many ways serves as a landfill of undigested intellectual matter—is of great benefit to them. The decline of intellectual integrity has been further exacerbated by large language models that now do the thinking for those unwilling to wrestle even with abstract ideas.

The polarization that arises from logically failed opinions, distributed by a populus via networks tailored to accommodate retardation, resembles a growth hormone invented to cultivate only black swans. In this gladiatorial amphitheater, there is less and less room for doubt, intellectual sharpness, or stoic resilience, since the crowd demands visible signs of success—indicators that will only accelerate future catastrophes.

In short: Taleb’s diagnosis is accurate, and his analysis precise enough that the probabilistic estimate of catastrophic events remains high. Precisely for this reason, the absence of a “therapy”—that is, of proposals for greater resilience to the inevitable manifestations of our general pathological condition—is the principal weakness of Taleb’s intellectual effort.

The problem is not that we are unaware of our illness; the problem is that our very existence depends on preserving this pathological state at all costs, and through all available rationalizations. And our awareness of it has, for a long time now, changed absolutely nothing.

It is difficult to say this while thinking of those who suffer, but it seems we are no longer moved even by the distilled self-destruction embodied in genocide. Perhaps herein lies the true swan song of the darkest dimensions of humanity: the final normalization—or domestication—of the black swans.

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Slovenski izvirnik:

Nassim Taleb in labodji spev črnih med njimi Misel o končnosti v svetu nepredvidljive krhkosti

Juš, prijatelj iz cvetobera intelektualno navdihujočih umov, ki so mi v zadnjem času prekrižali poti, mi je posodil knjižno uspešnico Nassima Taleba Črni labod. Eklektična krpanka, ki je v času svoje pojavitve razburkala javnost z analizo vplivov malo verjetnih, a usodno prelomnih dogodkov, velja za nujno branje radovednih generalistov. Danes živimo v svetu, ki po eni strani človeško zmožnost artikulacije odločitev in njihovega uresničevanja v ravnanjih vse bolj poriva pod okrilje razsežnih jezikovnih modelov, algoritmičnih napovedi in statističnih operacij, medtem ko realnost — pa naj bo ekonomska, socialna ali politična — postaja surovo negotova. Intelektualnemu hrepenenju po vstopu v polje, ki pojasnjuje določilo trenutne tu-biti in njenih negotovosti, se ni bilo mogoče upreti. Predvsem v upanju po globljem razumevanju nepredvidljivega, še bolj pa v hrepenenju po odkritju obrisov alternativnega.

Repriza opredelitve ali navidezno odkritje že odkritega

Taleb se v svoji analizi osredotoči na tisto, kar zahodna družba v svojem bistvu najgloblje in najbolj vztrajno poriva na periferijo kolektivne zavesti: krhkost smiselnega, prosojnost občega, nepredvidljivost prihodnjega in uničevalnost odrinjenega. Skupni znanilec in označevalec spektra patoloških ideološko-epistemološko-ontoloških zaslepitev sodobnega časa je Črni labod. Čeprav Taleb izhaja iz socioekonomsko napovednega konteksta, saj filozofskega na nek latenten način prezira, so uničevalno nepričakovani dogodki, ki jih omenja in analizira, dogodki v pomenu, ki ga je v strukturno širšem pogledu opredelil že Badiou. Gre namreč za razpoko, ki razgali nekonsistentnost smisla, deterministično arbitrarnega prešitja vsakokratnega ontološko-epistemološkega okvira aktualne danosti. Trenutek, kot ga opredeljuje Taleb — torej dogodek, ki se že v preddverju lastne pojavitve zdi nemogoč oziroma fantazmagoričen, nato pa poruši zgradbo resničnega in vzpostavi novo ontološko prešitje oz. pomenonosno polje vzvratno samoopredeljujoče se subjektivnosti — je kvečjemo kategorija primerkov Dogodkov Alaina Badiouja. Pred 11. 9. 2001, pred finančnim zlomom 2008, vzponom Harryja Potterja, pojavom interneta so se zgodili Francoska revolucija, študentski upori 1986, Beethovnova glasba in nenazadnje neskončno število ljubezni med dvema.

Odpor do filozofije je spričevalo filozofske krhkosti

Taleb zavrača predvidljivo sistematičnost, dogmatičnost, prosojnost abstraktnega mišljenja in drugih, po njegovem mnenju platonističnih zablod. Nenazadnje se njegov odpor do filozofske strukturiranosti odraža v anekdotično eklektičnem stilu pisanja, ki prej kot na karkoli drugega spominja na kalejdoskop fragmentiranih miselnih prebliskov načitanega svobodomisleca. A površna obravnava fenomenov je lahko le obravnava fenomenov na površini. Pristop, ki analizira pojave na površini, razgalja le površinske lastnosti teh pojavov. Kritika platonizma, ki jo v svoji razlagi nastanka slepote za pojav črnih labodov implicira Taleb, je integralni del razvoja filozofske misli kot take. Nihče ne oporeka pomembnosti opozarjanja, da so tudi filozofski sistemi lahko dogmatični — predvsem kot priročna opora lenobnega duha — a na neživljenjskost, togost, prosojnost in rigidnost platonizma je davno pred tem opozarjal Nietzsche. Tudi pri njem je resnica nekaj, kar izraste oziroma se potrdi v kontekstu afirmacije življenja. Dogodki, ki v hipu razkrojijo strukturo predhodne črvrstosti ontologije vsakokratne tu-biti, so sestavni del dinamičnosti resnice same. Seveda jih lahko vidimo v zlomu borze, odzivih na pandemijo covida, nastanku interneta, podnebni krizi — a to so le aktualizacije globlje vrzeli. Nietzsche še zdaleč ni bil edini, ki se mu je spahovalo ob misli na predvidljivo statičnost presežne resnice, h kateri se nedvomno v enaki intenziteti obračamo še danes. Enačenje med idealizmom abstraktnega mišljenja in filozofijo, na katerega namiguje Taleb, je raztrgal Hegel v svojem spisu Misliti abstraktno. Tudi v tem oziru je spoznanje, da abstraktno mišljenje ni odlika filozofov, temveč branjevk oziroma petminutnih menedžerjev, kot jim pravi Taleb, le ponovitev — še zdaleč ne nepomembna, zagotovo pa znana — filozofskega refrena. Pozaba sklica v želji po statusu odkritelja izvirnikov je stvar intelektualne higiene; opredelitev površine brez poskusa razumevanja njene globine pa je epistemološki spodrsljaj. Vzemimo za primer Talebovega finančnika, ki retrospektivno pojasni zlom borze, o katerem se mu pred pojavom niti sanjalo ni. Nobene dileme ni, da ima Taleb prav, ko pravi, da pri pojasnjevanju dogodkov iz preteklosti spremljamo intelektualno zablodo. “Zabloda pripovedi” pa ima navkljub videzu epistemološke funkcije v resnici drugačno vlogo, ki jo je v svojem delu Sociologija obreda opisal Jean Cazaneuve. Čeprav se na prvi pogled zdi, da finančnik iskreno išče razloge za pojav, ki je pretresel črvrstost njegovih predhodnih predpostavk, v resnici išče racionalizacije, ki bi učvrstile njegov občutek smiselnosti, povezanosti in celovitosti sveta, s katerim se istoveti. Skratka: ne gre za iskanje resnice, temveč za pobeg pred nerazumljivim, kaotičnim, razpršeno neobvladljivim svetom. Cela geneza ritualizacije življenja homo sapiensa je odgovor na tovrstno eksistencialno stisko. Če le za hip prisluhnemo trojici Cassirer, Beavois, Cazaneuve, je jasno, da razlage ne služijo pojasnjevanju sveta v kontekstu iskanja resnice, temveč ustvarjajo prešitje podobe sveta, ki je obvladljiv, domač, konsistenten, predvidljiv. Dogmatizem je ustvarjanje domačih intelektualno-eksistencialnih pokrajin — in seveda tudi opora lenobnega duha hitro rastočih instant specialistov.

Navdihujoča diagnoza brez terapije

Če Talebu ne moremo priznati izvirnosti in filozofske poglobljenosti, pa zagotovo navdušuje slikovitost njegove anekdotičnosti. Primer pitanega purana, ki iz lagodnosti svojega pogojenega vsakdana napačno induktivno sklepa na trajnost in nevprašljivost tega izjemnega blagostanja, dokler ga ne preseneti Dan zahvalnosti (kako pomenljivo ime brutalne točke spoznanja), zadane srčiko sodobne površno površinske potrošniške zavesti. Zavesti, ki v presežnem blagostanju prezira problematično pogojenost taistega blagostanja, brez katerega ne zmore več misliti svojega obstoja. Brutalna potratnost, ki ustvarja uničujoč dolg naslednjih generacij, je na Zahodu postala norma politične stabilnosti. Ohranjamo se na način, da se dolgoročno uničujemo. Podobno kot kronični alkoholik, ki se lahko vzdržuje samo še tako, da ostaja odvisen od tistega, kar ga v resnici uničuje. Zahodna družba blagostanja je družba, ki uničuje samo sebe. V takšni patološki konstelaciji je črni labod nujna posledica, čeprav ni nujno, da se vselej pojavi. Če prispodobo purana posredno opremo na Heglovo prispodobo o gospodarju in hlapcu, lahko rečemo, da puran ni več gospodar svoje usode, saj zaupa roki, ki ga hrani — predvsem zato, ker noče sprejeti, da ima taista roka moč, da ga na koncu tudi pokonča. Anekdota o vsevednem stricu je vrhunska analogija videza vednosti, s katero danes opletajo upravljalci javnih zadev, trenerji, direktorji, torej vsi tisti, ki jih zanimajo hitri dobički ob najmanjšem, po možnosti ničelnem vložku. Seveda jim je internet, ki v marsičem predstavlja deponijo neprebavljene intelektualne materije, v veliko korist. Katalizacijo intelektualnega razkroja pa so dodobra okrepili obsežni jezikovni modeli, ki mislijo namesto tistih, ki se jim ne ljubi razumeti niti abstraktnih stvari. Polarizacija na podlagi logično spodletelih mnenj, ki jo distribuira populus na retardiranosti posebej prilagojenih omrežjih, spominja na rasni hormon, ki so ga iznašli, da bi pospešili rast izključno črnih labodov. V tem gladiatorskem amfiteatru je prostora za dvom, intelektualno nabritost, stoično upornost vse manj, saj publika zahteva vidne atribute uspeha, ki bodo pospeševalec katastrof v prihodnosti. Skratka: Talebova diagnoza je točna, analiza dovolj natančna, da je probabilistična ocena možnosti katastrofalnih dogodkov visoka. Prav zato je odsotnost terapije v smislu predlogov za večjo odpornost proti nujnim pojavom našega občega patološkega dispozitiva glavna pomanjkljivost Talebovega intelektualnega zamaha. Ne gre za to, da ne bi poznali svoje bolezni; gre za to, da naš trenuten obstoj temelji na tem, da bolezensko stanje za vsako ceno in ob vseh možnih racionalizacijah ohranjamo. Zavedanje vsega tega pa že dolgo časa prav nič ne spremeni. Težko je to izreči ob misli na vse trpeče, a zdi se, da nas ne gane niti destilirano samouničevanje v podobi genocida. V tem morda tiči labodji spev najbolj črnih razsežnosti Človeštva: poslednja normalizacija oziroma udomačitev črnih labodov.